Therupee staged a smart rebound from its low towards the fag-end trade on dollar selling as well as suspected intrusion by the Reserve Bank to end steady at 63.39.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
The domestic unit hovered in a range of 66.45 and 66.61 per dollar during the day.
Wholesale price inflation moderated to 2.31 per cent in January due to the decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Friday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.37 per cent in December 2024. It was 0.33 per cent in January 2024.
The rupee has depreciated 9.7 per cent against the US dollar over a year and with the RBI stemming the rupee's weakness through dollar sales, its reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since October, 2020. The fall in reserves has widespread implications.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
Trading in stock markets this week will be majorly influenced by the upcoming quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS and Infosys, along with global trends, analysts said. Besides, global oil benchmark Brent crude, rupee-dollar trend and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate the movement, they said. "On the domestic front, all eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
The rupee continued to rule firm against the dollar for the second consecutive day.
Srinivas Bhogle and Purnendu Maji present Rediff's first Most Valuable Player Index for IPL 2025.
There is high demand for the US currency from importers
The rupee on Wednesday declined by 16 paise to close at its fresh lifetime low of 77.60 against the US dollar amid unabated foreign fund outflows and a stronger greenback in overseas markets. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.57 and later hit the day's low of 77.61 as the dollar rebounded in global markets following hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. Crude oil prices also surged over 1 per cent, which weighed on the rupee.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Strong rebound in local equities restricted the rupee's fall.
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Demand for the dollar from importers weighed on the local currency.
It moved in a range of 66.9250 and 66.70 per dollar during the day
Strong foreign fund inflows, a weakening dollar and slipping oil prices propped up the local unit.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends and macroeconomic data announcements in a holiday-shortened week which may see volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Gurunanak Jayanti. Trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be tracked by investors.
The rupee had closed with a gain of 12 paise on Friday.
The rupee hovered in a range of 63.75 and 63.84.
Trumponomics, poor growth, and high valuation certainly don't make a bullish recipe for Indian markets, warns Debashis Basu.
The rupee ended lower by 7 paise to 62.31 against the American currency on fresh dollar demand from banks.
The rupee ended almost flat against the dollar.
The ever-astute Ravi Matthai, Director of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad in 1971, offered me a basic salary of Rs 1,000 per month on my return from the United States. I doubt if IIMA could hire a faculty member at Rs 55,000 per month today! points out Dr Shreekant Sambrani.
The Indian rupee ended slightly lower at 64.01/02 per dollar compared with Tuesday's close of 63.98/99 per dollar due to month-end dollar demand by importers.
From the Sensex basket, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, Bajaj Finserv, Wipro, Maruti Suzuki India, Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro and NTPC were the major laggards. Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.
The rupee closed marginally stronger against the dollar on Wednesday.
The rupee is seen weakening against dollar in current week.
The rupee on Monday slipped by 5 paise to close at 63.57 per dollar on fresh demand for the American currency from banks.
The rupee on Monday failed to maintain initial gains and ended lower by five paise at 60.21 against the dollar on fag-end demand for the US currency from banks and importers.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
The rupee plunged 58 paise to close at an all-time low of 81.67 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday as the strengthening of the American currency overseas and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, escalation of geopolitical risks due to conflict in Ukraine, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 81.47, then fell further to close at an all-time low of 81.67 against the American currency, registering a decline of 58 paise over its previous close.
From the 30 blue-chip pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, Nestle and ICICI Bank were the biggest gainers. State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Adani Ports, Zomato, UltraTech Cement and HCL Tech were among the laggards.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
There was fresh dollar demand from banks and importers.
Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
The sudden and surprising announcement by Anderson comes within days of a Republican Congressman, a member of the House Judiciary Committee, asking the Department of Justice to preserve all the documents and communications related to the investigations of Adani and his companies.
The Rupee is seen recovering from its all-time lows against the dollar.
